There are signs of a shifting racial coalition. Inflation and the economy are dragging Democrats down among working-class voters - perhaps notably among Hispanic Americans - while issues like guns, abortion rights and threats to democracy are motivating the party’s white college-educated voters. That trend is not stopping, the poll shows. In recent years, Democrats have made gains among well-educated voters while Republicans have made gains among voters without a college degree. Sixty-five percent said they thought abortion should be completely or mostly legal, up from 60 percent in the last Times/Siena poll that asked about the issue, in September 2020.Ĭlass polarization continues. Support for abortion rights is up in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. It’s a big change from earlier in the cycle, when immigration, crime and questions about school curriculums seemed likely to dominate the campaign - and help Republicans. Around 30 percent of voters combined said topics related to guns, abortion and democracy were the most important problem facing the country, and Democrats had a wide lead among these voters. The news has been bad for Democrats, from recent court rulings to their frustrations in trying to stop mass shootings, but for the moment it may be helping the Democratic Party. That’s a little surprising, given expectations of a Republican landslide this year. The midterm race starts out close, with voters nearly evenly divided on the generic congressional ballot (voters are asked whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans to be in control of Congress). What was surprising: Ten percent of respondents volunteered that they would not vote at all or would vote for someone else if those were the two candidates, even though the interviewer didn’t offer those choices as an option. Trump in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, 44 percent to 41 percent. Many voters do not want to see a 2020 rematch. Trump may still be the front-runner, but the polls increasingly look more like the early surveys from the Democratic primary in 2008 - when Hillary Clinton found herself in an extremely close race and ultimately lost to Barack Obama - than the polls ahead of the Democratic primary in 2016, when she won a protracted battle against Bernie Sanders. Ron DeSantis of Florida is already at 25 percent in an early test of the Republican primary.
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